Technical Assessment: Bullish in the Intermediate-Term

Argus

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Oct 03, 2025

Technical Assessment: Bullish in the Intermediate-Term

Summary

Market sentiment remains muted, especially when considering how strong the stock market has been since the April bottom. One would might think that market participants, no matter who they are, would be euphoric with the three-year gains that have been posted since the last bear market ended in October 2022. The weekly National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index (NAAIM) has been very steady since the beginning of May, with exposure ranging between 70% and 99% and this week’s reading at 86%. During large and lengthy advances in the past, exposure has jumped over 100% and occasionally exceeded 110%. Participants in this survey typically move in sync with prices, but have not pushed all their chips in during this advance. The weekly American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey is even more compelling, as survey members have not exhibited extreme bullishness toward the stock market since back in 2024. The current weekly data shows 42% bulls and 39% bears, rather stunning given the market’s performance. The participants in this survey have been the smart money at times, and seem to be somewhat sophisticated individual investors who have play