UFC London preview and predictions: Movsar Evloev or Lerone Murphy — who earns a title shot?

It’s typically a party whenever the UFC ventures to London, England. For this year’s first visit, it’s all about the featherweights, as either Movsar Evloev or Lerone Murphy will be handed their first career loss.

UFC London heavily leans on its main event to attract eyeballs from the MMA community, as most UFC Fight Night events do nowadays. A recurring theme with these shows in 2026 has been an abundance of heavy favorites, but with Saturday’s headliner being a pivotal matchup for the 145-pound division, Evloev gets only the slight oddsmakers’ edge despite missing all of last year.

Murphy stepped in to capitalize on Evloev’s would-be Aaron Pico bout in 2025, scoring the year’s best knockout — yet still remained absent from 2026’s first featherweight title tilt. There’s no promise again of this weekend’s main-event winner moving on to challenge UFC champion Alexander Volkanovski, but the matchup appears to be every bit of what you’d want from a true No. 1 contender fight.

Also on the card, the perpetually-entertaining Michael “Venom” Page returns home for an oddball pairing against Sam Patterson — and somehow that isn’t the co-main event. Those honors belong to undefeated British prospect Luke Riley, who is set to fend off America’s Michael Aswell.

Mismatches once again seem likely throughout UFC London. Don’t get it twisted, though — the main event is as good as it gets for a non-title fight.

👑 UFC London’s lineup Crown grade: D+. 👑

Betting odds via BetMGM.

Movsar Evloev has been flawless throughout his MMA career.

(Jeff Bottari via Getty Images)

145 pounds: Movsar Evloev (-250) vs. Lerone Murphy (+200)

In an ever-so-slightly altered parallel universe, UFC London is hosting a featherweight title fight right now.

Evloev has long been touted as a future champion, with many pundits and fans alike predicting that 2025 was going to be his year. All he needed was the opportunity, they said, and then you can tally another one in the MMA championship history books for Russia. Instead, he’s be forced to take the long road, chasing down a 10th UFC win to reach the mark of 20 pro fights unbeaten.

Murphy can say the same through 18 fights, but holds a draw in his UFC debut, keeping him tied with Evloev in the promotion’s win-streak department. Coincidentally, both have been critiqued for perhaps not being the most exciting fighters at 145 pounds — at least until their most recent fights.

Murphy displayed incredible patience when weathering the storm and setting up his kill-shot against Pico. Was the fight tailor-made for Murphy to deliver a career-defining highlight? Sure, especially when you assess and rewatch the fight moment-by-moment. Outside of the champion, Volkanovski, Murphy is the Swiss Army Knife of the featherweight division, able to do anything and everything extremely well.

Evloev is a calm and calculated striker, but his real strength lies on the ground. As an elite grappler, he’s confident in every position once the fight hits the mat, which could be bad news for Murphy. Facing an aggressive wrestler like Pico, Murphy was taken down in key moments. While that ultimately led to Pico’s downfall, Evloev brings that same level of danger on the ground, but with an unwillingness to leave any defensives holes open as widely as the former Bellator contender.

Admittedly, the five-round length could make this matchup very intriguing down the stretch. A literal decision-machine, Evloev hasn’t seen a championship round since before his time in the UFC, when he reigned over M-1 Global in 2017-18 as its bantamweight champion. For the most part, this should be a typical Evloev breakdown, but Murphy will come on strong late. The Russian’s technique has just been too sharp throughout his career, and I can see him putting on an undeniable performance regardless of his layoff.

Pick: Evloev

145 pounds: Luke Riley (-220) vs. Michael Aswell (+180)

Luke Riley gets his chance to really build momentum at home, and the UFC appears fully behind him with this card placement. The young English prospect has shown hints that he might become a well-rounded, composed fighter, but this is still very much a “prove it” stage of his career.

Michael Aswell, meanwhile, feels like the type of opponent who either gets overwhelmed quickly or drags things into uncomfortable territory. He’s aggressive, a bit unpolished, and willing to make fights messy, which isn’t always ideal for a prospect trying to look clean and controlled. Both men are at a stage where they have a lot to prove.

Riley should be the sharper, more technical fighter, especially if he keeps this at range and avoids getting sucked into a scrap. But if Aswell can muddy things up early, this could turn into more of a grind. Overall, Riley has just looked much more the part, delivering better performances throughout his 12-fight undefeated stretch.

Pick: Riley

170 pounds: Michael Page (-190) vs. Sam Patterson (+155)

This fight still makes no damn sense, folks. It very well may be the biggest matchmaking head-scratcher of the past decade, and I mean that.

A famed fan-favorite and showman, Page entered UFC in a high-profile spot, quickly vaulting into the welterweight rankings. He then pursued middleweight side-quests — which he won — against Sharaputdin Magomedov and Jared Cannonier, the latter of whom is a one-time title challenger and perennial contender. Page made it look easy … and now he gets the prospect in Patterson?

Make it make sense.

None of that is meant to be shade thrown at Patterson. He’s been excellent on his current four-fight UFC winning streak, finishing all his opponents. Clearly the UFC sees something in the guy, and would like to see him do his thing here at the expense of the older but still talented Page. That’s just way, way, way easier said than done.

Range and distance management are nearly impossible to get around for opponents of “MVP.” He’s cracked the code for gliding across the cage and striking, as his viper-like nickname suggests. Patterson will have to follow the same path others have in order to defeat Page — that means closing the distance and smothering, or landing hard shots in tight. Otherwise, he’s getting styled on as most do.

Patterson has a bright future, but a matchup like this may simply require more experience or a perfect game plan.

Pick: Page

Iwo Baraniewski was in one of the wildest fights of 2025.

(Chris Unger via Getty Images)

205 pounds: Iwo Baraniewski (-700) vs. Austen Lane (+500)

It’s that time again where we question how Austen Lane is still in the UFC after getting finished in four of his six appearances — with a no-contest also kicking off his run.

Listen, this is as much of a setup fight as you could ask for, regardless of Lane’s shift downward from heavyweight to light heavyweight. The guy has been bolted more than Frankenstein’s neck, and Iwo Baraniewski proved himself a legitimate madman in his rabid epic against Ibo Aslan last year.

As soon as these two inevitably get swinging, Baraniewski will land and it’ll be lights out.

Pick: Baraniewski

185 pounds: Roman Dolidze (+360) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (-500)

Roman Dolidze’s days may be numbered.

The Georgian used to thrive in relatively chaotic bouts, throwing heavy, awkward shots and turning fights into scrappy brawls where technique took a backseat to toughness. That still holds true, depending on the opponent — but Christian Leroy Duncan isn’t that guy. Dolidze should look to make this a snuggle as soon as possible, rather than an instant nap he’ll take by getting too confident with his strikes.

Duncan is flashy and at his best when he can stay long, pick shots and keep things clean. Expect him to control range and to fight disciplined, making him look like the far superior striker he is.

I mean, we’re talking about a guy who’s entering the fight with back-to-back spinning attack knockouts.

Pick: Duncan

145 pounds: Kurtis Campbell (-225) vs. Danny Silva (+185)

This feels like a fight that could quietly steal the show, practically acting as a Contender Series fight on a UFC stage.

Campbell is the more composed, well-rounded fighter on-paper, preferring to stay technical and pick his spots rather than dive headfirst into chaos. Silva, on the other hand, tends to bring the fight to you whether you like it or not, pushing pace and forcing exchanges that can get wild in a hurry. Glancing at his record without detail may give some pause, but obviously a loss to Kevin Vallejos is nothing to be ashamed of.

This fight ultimately comes down to the danger element, which Campbell has shown to possess more of, at least on MMA’s lower levels. He’s lethal with a variety of strikes, whereas Silva chips away, having not scored a finish in his past four fights. We like a little danger here at Uncrowned.

Pick: Campbell

Mason Jones plans to make good on his second UFC stint. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

(Jeff Bottari via Getty Images)

Preliminary Notes

By now, faithful Uncrowned readers may know that I love me some Nathaniel Wood, and I’ll ride with him more often than not. His matchup with Losene Keita is no exception.

Despite that, Mason Jones takes center stage of the prelim gang. “The Dragon” has put things together since his first UFC run, rattling off a six-fight win streak that includes his two UFC return dubs. Both performances against Jeremy Stephens and Bolaji Oki were magnetic, reaffirming why Jones garnered the hype he did years ago.

Other than that, expect some one-sided wallopings to start your morning here stateside, as the UFC London prelims were not organized to deliver competitive outcomes.

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