Isaiah Mccall
4 min read
Supercycle narrative, once treated like gospel, took a serious hit as BTC USD slid all the way to $60,000 and ETH USD cracked below $2,000. Is this just another brutal shakeout or the moment the supercycle myth finally broke? Either way, BTC USD and ETH USD are now inseparable from rock bottom sentiment.
What made us feel the selloff sting is that we just don’t know where the fire comes from. No surprise rate hike, no exchange collapse, no overnight regulation hammer. The total crypto market cap just somehow dropped to $2.3 trillion after a sharp 7% daily decline, almost half of $4,2 trillion top.
More than $2.6 billion vanished in a single day, with realized Bitcoin losses hitting past black swan events. Long positions worth over $2.1 billion were erased; it was just a brutal bloodbath. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman called it a “crisis of faith” as both ETH and BTC don’t respect narratives. The supercycle debate becomes emotional before it becomes analytical in a cycle low condition.
If this is a supercycle, it’s not the smooth, up-only version people sold on podcasts. If.
(source – Coinglass)
Strategy CEO Phong Le said that BTC USD would need to collapse to $8K and stay there for years to truly threaten corporate balance sheets. At the same time, $4.3 billion in Bitcoin flowed out on Binance in just two days, more than any other exchange, even as on-chain data showed long-term holders barely moving.
The market has shed nearly $1 trillion since mid-January, with analysts now openly floating USD 40K scenarios for BTC, just as bears hold the momentum. ETH USD, meanwhile, continues to wrestle with its own identity crisis as Layer-2 drama and ecosystem politics muddy the waters. The supercycle is limping if it exists.
Although beneath the noise, adoption headlines didn’t stop. Russia’s Sberbank is preparing crypto-backed loans for corporates. Binance’s CZ keeps pushing the idea that every national currency belongs on-chain. Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong compared crypto and AI to “siamese twins” of applied math, destined to reconnect. Builders building while prices bleed.
DISCOVER: 10+ Next Crypto to 100X In
From a technical standpoint, BTC USD breaking from $70K and tagging $60K pushed momentum indicators into extreme territory. Daily RSI dipped near 22, a range lower than that of “Covid Crash”. A good rebound could target the $75K zone if volume helps the course, but failure here opens the door to $40K based on Fibonacci retracements from October highs. The 200-day moving average is saying that $55K is the line to watch.
