Technical Assessment: Neutral in the Intermediate-Term

Summary

We’ve now booked three days of gains out of four on the major indices. The S&P 500 (SPX), S&P 100 (OEX), S&P 400 (MDY), and S&P 600 (SML) are all headed toward a major region of resistance, and the results should be a big tell for the stock market. Will the indices retest their lows or possibly undercut their lows before they bottom? Or will they pause at the cluster of resistance before barreling ahead in what could end up being “V” bottom? And yes, there are more possibilities. The markets ripped higher on Wednesday, with the major indices popping 1% to 1.4%. A majority of the gains came after the 2:00 announcement of the Fed’s decision (and commentary) to leave the fed funds rate alone. What was the market expecting? Market breadth was decent, with NYSE advancers-decliners at +1,465, and NYSE advances/total issues and NYSE up volume/total volume both at 72%. There is a major cluster of resistance for the SPX between 5,750 and 5,825, which includes the slightly rising 200-day average; the declining 21-day exponential; a 38% and 50% retracement of the decline; and the closing and intraday breakdown levels from January 12 and 13. On the downside, it’s pretty simple, with the closing low of the pullback at 5,522. Fo

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